Tag: Bayesian

Monty Hall at his show Let's Make a Deal
Miscellaneous

The Reason Why the Monty Hall Problem Continues to Perplex Everyone

The Monty Hall problem is an interesting puzzle loosely based on an American TV game show Let’s Make a Deal hosted by Monty Hall. While the puzzle looked simple, it perplexed some of the brightest mathematical minds in the United States, including the great Paul Erdös who was one of the most prolific mathematicians of the 20th century. This continues to be the case today. I looked upon a number of references to find the source of confusion in the Monty Hall problem but failed. All I found was different solutions. Therefore, I built one myself with the usual from

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Farm and library
Machine Learning

A Beginner’s Guide to Bayesian Methodology

Thomas Bayes was an English statistician and Presbyterian minister who came up with this theorem in 18th century during his investigation on how to update the understanding of a phenomenon as more evidence becomes available. At that time, he did not deem it worthy of publication and never submitted it to any journal. It was discovered in his notes after his death and published by his friend Richard Price. In the past, Bayesian theorem was associated with highly complicated mathematics (and rightly so), and hence it was generally a topic of interest for mathematicians, statisticians and similar professionals. However, as

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